Last week, media outlets reported on new data showing that expectations of massive agricultural job losses following the implementation of a R105 daily minimum wage were unfounded.The labour department announced the 52% increase in the minimum wage, effective from March 1 2013, following massive unrest that swept the Western Cape agricultural sector late last year and early this year.According to Statistics South Africa’s latest quarterly labour force survey, agricultural employment declined by 26 000 jobs between the first and second quarters of this year.That amounts to a 3.5% contraction, which seems mild compared with the alarming predictions. These included a study by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, which argued that most farmers would not be able to afford the increase.However, quarter-on-quarter changes are misleading in an industry that is subject to major seasonal fluctuations. The number of agriculture jobs ebbs and flows with the cycle of the harvest.Second quarters typically see a large decline from the first quarter — in 2012, agricultural employment shrank by 18 000 jobs during that period, or 2.7%.Employment up year on yearTo obtain a more accurate picture of trends in agricultural employment, we need to look at year-on-year changes — the number of jobs at a certain point compared with the same time the previous year.

Agricultural jobs actually grew by 74 000 between the second quarters of 2012 and 2013, making it the second-fastest-growing sector in the economy after utilities.A study by economists at the University of Cape Town’s development policy research unit found that the implementation of a minimum wage for agriculture in 2003 had a negative effect on employment.However, subsequent work by the same unit argued that minimum wages did not lead to job losses in other sectors. The latest labour force survey figures could prove that the situation in agriculture has changed — and that the new minimum wage will not destroy jobs. There are caveats to consider before endorsing this conclusion, however. The university study found that, whereas minimum wage legislation had lifted average wages, up to 60% of workers still earned below the legal requirement in 2007. After the most recent minimum wage hike, trade unionists are reporting that many farmers have been attempting to avoid or pass on the increases.

Some workers were reportedly coerced into signing agreements stating that they will accept less than the new minimum wage — typically R85 a day — in return for keeping their jobs. Other farmers have simply passed on the increases through higher rent, electricity and food charges for on-farm workers. Farmers who applied for exemptions may have avoided paying the higher wage in the interim. Therefore, before contending that minimum wages have not had the predicted effect on employment, we would need to know what has actually happened to farmworker wages.

Much of rural South Africa remains the domain of baasskap the “boss” mentality, where modern labour standards and regulations hold little purchase and legislated increases carry no guarantee of actually affecting wage levels. The dismal state of the labour department and the woefully inadequate number of inspectors suggests that workers will have to organise themselves to secure gains that push employers below expected profit margins or challenge entrenched social relations.

via Not all peachy on farm jobs front | Business | Mail & Guardian.